the  forest  for  the  trees


In this 3 part video series, I will share 6 charts that I think are KEY as we head into 2021 covering:

  • Over the past 120 years, sovereign debt levels as high as Advanced Economy debts currently are have been resolved only 3 ways: Default/Restructuring, Inflation, Hyperinflation.
  • It seems highly likely that Fed-financed stimulus is coming no matter who controls the White House or Congress.
  • The political nature of what is likely to transpire means volatility is likely to remain elevated.
  • …and the US fiscal situation now is far worse than it was after World War 2.
  • By way of comparison, US real rates were -14% after World War 2…
  • Arguably the biggest misperception in markets is that US real rates have bottomed at -1.1%

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Contact Information

Luke Gromen, CFA
Forest for the Trees

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